Market

Agent Economy Projections: 2026-2030

Market analysis and projections for AI agent commerce, including adoption curves, infrastructure requirements, and competitive landscape.

Pragma.Vision Research 2 min read

Market Context

The agent economy is transitioning from experimental to operational. Three inflection points mark this shift:

  1. Major AI assistants gained commerce capabilities (2024-2025)
  2. Protocol standardization accelerated (2025-2026)
  3. Consumer trust thresholds reached (projected 2026-2027)

Adoption Projections

Conservative Estimate

  • 2026: 5% of online transactions involve AI agents
  • 2028: 15% of online transactions
  • 2030: 30% of online transactions

Aggressive Estimate

  • 2026: 12% of online transactions
  • 2028: 35% of online transactions
  • 2030: 55% of online transactions

The variance depends primarily on trust infrastructure adoption and major platform integration speed.

Infrastructure Requirements

For the agent economy to scale, several infrastructure gaps must close:

Identity Infrastructure

  • Agent registration and verification systems
  • Cross-platform identity federation
  • Reputation and trust scoring

Authorization Infrastructure

  • Standardized spending mandates
  • Multi-protocol support
  • Revocation and monitoring systems

Settlement Infrastructure

  • Low-latency payment processing
  • Multi-currency and crypto support
  • Dispute resolution mechanisms

Competitive Landscape

Three categories of players are competing to capture agent commerce:

Big Tech Incumbents

Google, Amazon, Apple, and Meta are integrating AI assistants with their commerce platforms. Advantage: existing user bases and payment infrastructure. Risk: walled gardens reduce interoperability.

Payment Networks

Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe are extending their networks to support agent transactions. Advantage: trusted infrastructure. Risk: legacy architecture constraints.

Protocol-First Startups

New entrants building agent-native commerce from scratch. Advantage: no legacy constraints. Risk: need to build trust from zero.

Strategic Implications

Organizations should:

  1. Invest in protocol compatibility - don’t bet on single standards
  2. Build identity-first - trust infrastructure enables everything else
  3. Plan for agent-primary - assume agents will be the dominant interface

The window for establishing position in agent commerce is 2026-2028. After that, network effects will favor early movers.